Money, Banks and Finance in Economic Thought

Problems of investment attractiveness of commodity transnational companies in the economic literature of the late XX - early XXI century (on the example of the oil industry)

Nureev Rustem Nureev, Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation
Busygin Evgeny, NRU HSE

Problems of investment attractiveness of commodity transnational companies in the economic literature of the late XX - early XXI century (on the example of the oil industry) Nureev R.M., Doctor of Science, NRU HSE, Moscow Busygin E.G., PhD student, NRU HSE, Moscow In the second half of the 20th century, many economists studied how objective stock prices and other publicly traded securities were as a guideline, reflecting the real value of companies and assets. P. Samuelson considered the issues of cost forecasting and showed that, in general, it is possible to assume the correct price movement, but not exact figures (Samuelson P.A., 1965). He noted a very important point that price formation is influenced by both past events and future ones, which, according to analysts, should occur. (Samuelson P.A., 1965, 44 P.) The development of the theory of the effective market was done by Y. Fama, who as a result won the Nobel Prize in Economics for her in 2013. Its main idea is that the prices of securities contain all the available information at any time. (Fama E., 1970) Three types of market efficiency can be distinguished: Weak form, Semi-strong form and Strong form. (Fama E., 1970, 383 P.): Among the arguments against market efficiency are the high costs of obtaining data; if prices reflected all the information currently available, then those investors who pay for access to it would have no incentive, which S. Grossman and J. Stiglitz showed through maximizing the utility of investors (Grossman SJ, Stiglitz JE, 1980). D. Kahneman and A. Tversky formulated the certainty effect and the isolation effect (Kahneman D., Tversky A., 1979). The essence of the second effect is that investors will prefer to buy stocks of oil companies or a particular company if they are recommended and distinguished among others by large investment funds, analysts, and not because they rely on common sense and fundamental factors that can also be true . The most active topic of diversification of economic activities of oil companies was studied in the second half of the 20th century. Among the studies that are devoted to this topic until the 21st century, we can single out theoretical studies on oligopolies (Greenhut ML, Ohta H., 1979; Perry MK 1989), empirical works, including building a model of panel data with fixed effects (Anderser AT et al. , 1984; Lieberman MB, 1991), and analytical work (Reed JL, 1978; Harrigan KR, 1985; Beck R., Bell L .; 1998) which was based on the unexpectedly high profit results of oil companies for 1997, simultaneously with than there was a significant decline in oil prices.

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Keywords: investment, market efficiency, stock exchange, shares, diversification, oil companies

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